![]() ![]() Major health care programs are projected to grow by $816 billion, which accounts for 32 percent of the total. Total outlays are projected to increase from roughly $3.5 trillion in 2014 to $5.8 trillion in 2024, for a total increase of $2.3 trillion. It shows that CBO projects three large budget categories-major health care programs (consisting of Medicare, Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, and subsidies for health insurance), Social Security, and net interest payments on the debt-will account for 85 percent of the total increase in outlays from 2014 to 2024. The third chart shows the same component breakdown on the outlay side. If extended, these tax provisions, which include expansive accelerated depreciation deductions for corporate and non-corporate businesses, could lower baseline revenues by 0.2 percentage points over the next two years. Of this increase, $1.1 trillion, or 60 percent, will come from individual income taxes $507 billion, or 27 percent, will come from payroll taxes $176 billion, or 10 percent, will come from corporate income taxes and the remaining $59 billion, or 3 percent, will come from various other sources such as excise taxes and customs taxes.īut some of these projected revenues could disappear if Congress decides to extend expiring tax subsidies. It shows that CBO projects revenues will grow from roughly $3 trillion in 2014 to around $4.9 trillion in 2024, for a total increase in $1.8 trillion. The second chart displays the breakdown of revenue sources that drive the total increase over the next 10 years. The first chart shows that CBO projects outlays to grow faster than revenues after 2018, which will push projected deficits above 4 percent of GDP by 2022. The fourth chart displays projected spending for major budget categories over the next decade. The second and third charts display the components that constitute the increases in revenues and outlays, respectively. The first chart displays historical and projected trends in outlays and revenues from 1974 through 2024. This shift will limit Washington’s ability to maintain the level of services Americans are used to-such as in national defense, transportation, and education-while also meeting increasing entitlement and debt obligations. The charts show that growing entitlement obligations and net interest payments are projected to push outlays (spending) to grow faster than revenues over much of the next decade. This week’s charts use data from the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) recently released update to its Budget and Economic Outlook to show the trends and components of projected revenue and outlay increases. ![]()
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